Women are having fewer children, families are getting smaller, and the population is aging.
Fertility rates are declining in most places and it´s a big problem. According to the UN, in 1990, the average number of births per woman globally was 3.2. By 2019, this had fallen to 2.5 births per woman; by 2050, it is expected to decline further to 2.2 births.
A study led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington and published in Lancet, highlights a profound and unprecedented trend towards smaller family sizes across various cultures and nations.
Dr. Christopher Murray, the study’s senior author and director of IHME, attributed this shift to numerous factors, including enhanced educational and employment opportunities for women, and improved access to contraception and reproductive health services.
Additionally, Dr. Gitau Mburu from the World Health Organization pointed out that economic factors such as the high costs of raising children, perceived risks to child survival, and evolving views on gender equality and personal fulfillment also play roles in declining fertility rates. These factors’ impacts differ by time and location.
A fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed to maintain a stable population, known as the replacement level. Falling below this threshold leads to population decline. The analysis indicates that in 2021, 46% of countries had fertility rates below this level, a figure expected to rise to 97% by 2100.
Some of the consequences are:
· Aging Population: With fewer children being born, the proportion of elderly individuals increases, leading to a higher dependency ratio. This puts pressure on public pensions, healthcare systems, and social services.
· Labor Shortages: A shrinking working-age population can lead to labor shortages, reducing economic productivity and growth. Industries that rely heavily on younger workers may struggle to find sufficient labor.
· Increased Healthcare Costs: An aging population typically requires more healthcare services. This can strain public health systems and increase government spending on healthcare.
· Reduced Consumer Demand: Fewer children and young people can lead to decreased demand for goods and services targeted at younger demographics, such as education, childcare, toys, and children’s clothing.
· Lower Economic Growth: Economic growth is often driven by a growing population. Lower fertility rates can slow population growth, leading to slower overall economic growth.
· Challenges to Pension Systems: Public and private pension systems can become unsustainable with fewer workers contributing and more retirees drawing benefits, potentially leading to increased taxes or reduced benefits.
· Increased Tax Burden: To support an aging population, governments may need to increase taxes on a shrinking workforce, which can reduce disposable income and consumer spending.
· Shift in Economic Focus: Economies may need to shift their focus from growth and expansion to maintenance and sustainability, investing more in automation and technology to compensate for labor shortages.
· Housing Market Changes: With fewer young people, the demand for housing, particularly larger family homes, may decline, potentially leading to falling property prices and a surplus of housing stock in certain areas.
· Education Sector Impact: Fewer children mean lower enrollment in schools and universities, potentially leading to school closures, reduced funding, and job losses in the education sector.
More people, but no workforce
Previous IHME research published in 2020 predicted the world population would peak at around 9.7 billion in 2064, then decrease to 8.8 billion by 2100. Another projection by the UN World Population Prospects 2022 suggests a peak of 10.4 billion in the 2080s. Regardless of the exact timing, a population decline is anticipated in the latter half of this century, with significant geopolitical, economic, and societal implications.
The rate of fertility decline varies globally, causing a shift in the geographic distribution of births. The study forecasts that by 2100, low-income regions will account for a significantly larger share of global births, with Sub-Saharan Africa alone projected to represent half of the world’s newborns. This demographic shift could lead to a “demographically divided world,” where high-income countries grapple with aging populations and workforce shortages, while low-income regions face pressures from high birth rates and limited resources.
Dr. Teresa Castro Martín from the Spanish National Research Council emphasized the study’s highlight of the demographic disparity between wealthy and impoverished nations. She noted that births would increasingly be concentrated in regions most vulnerable to climate change, resource scarcity, political instability, poverty, and high infant mortality.
High-income countries with falling fertility rates will face challenges related to aging populations, such as strains on health insurance, social security, and healthcare infrastructure, along with potential labor shortages.
The researchers suggest that ethical immigration policies and advancements in labor technology, like artificial intelligence, could help mitigate some economic impacts of these demographic changes.